The reasonable and supportable forecast might be the most critical part of your CECL forecast but is quite possibly the part that has the most uncertainty. The forecast should be an objective exercise that relies on data and minimizes the use of subjective components. With the convergence of CECL and the COVID-19 pandemic, banks are looking for trends and correlations in their internal and external data to provide any insight into their forecast. This is proving to be true with the commercial real estate market, especially with critical components such as office, retail, and hospitality....download the full article
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